The Decentralized Production Models Effect on Exploration and Development

Natural gas producers desperately need to get a handle on their business model. Continuing on with the high throughput production model and producing at capacity. Which incurs these losses that are being realized throughout the industry will bankrupt the industry in very short order. There are a few surprises in this summers natural gas marketplace. One is the resilience of the natural gas storage volumes. The ability of the natural gas storage volumes to recover from one of the coldest winters will place a limit on the upside of any future price increases. And the second is the volumes of natural gas from shale. Shale gas production is now well in excess of 50% of the source of the United States natural gas production. A phenomenal volume considering it was as little as 8% in 2008. Looking at the US production capacity increases in just the past 6 months, which are in the area of 3 bcf per day, it would appear that shale gas has not even hit its stride yet.

Producers must implement a method to deal with the realities of the shale based reserves. And enable themselves to allocate production based on profitability. And produce at a fraction of capacity. People, Ideas & Objects have proposed the Preliminary Specification with the decentralized production model which provides this capability to the innovative and profitable oil and gas producer. The question this asks is, does the decentralized production model therefore determine a slower exploration and development of shale gas reserves?

From my point of view I don't see any difference in the approach to the development of the shale gas reserves, or for that matter any of the conventional reserves as a result of the Preliminary Specification. The decentralized production model deals with the production of those reserves in a profitable manner, not with their development. It would be appropriate for a producer to develop their shale gas reserves and their production profile to the extent that they can. Just as they do today with the high throughput production model. The difference is they may hold some of those reserves off of the market while they may be unprofitable to produce. Waiting for the time in which the natural gas prices will rise to the point where profitable production will return. In an era with such prolific production, this capability to withhold production from the market when prices are low will be a necessary function of the innovative and profitable oil and gas producer.

Pursuit of a higher production profile will continue regardless of the current natural gas prices. Higher production volumes are dependent on the economics of the reserves and will be subject to the investment decisions of the producers. With only profitable production making up the producers production profile there will no longer be any unprofitable production consuming capital that needs to be added to the costs of the reserves. Enabling greater capital to be allocated to the exploration and development of future reserves. Therefore the innovative and profitable oil and gas producer will attain a higher production profile under the decentralized production model due to the fact that they will have greater volumes of capital available to invest. Their ability to consistently produce profitable operations will also attract the capital markets to invest further, creating even higher production profile capacities.

And there’s more. With the Preliminary Specification the focus is on the earth science and engineering capabilities of the oil and gas producer. These are the distinct competitive advantage of the oil and gas producer. The Preliminary Specification is focused on innovation and provides the producer with the toolset and the organizational structure to enable innovation. This will enable them to reduce their costs per barrel and in turn allow them to compete as a lowest cost producer. Keeping their production on the market, profitably, will enable them to fully exploit their reserves and optimize their production profile.

The decentralized production model is not an excuse to do nothing for the oil and gas producer. It is the first step in a process where they can begin the process of innovation to bring the costs of the property down, expand the reserves base, enhance the production or all of these things in order to bring the property back on production profitably. It is a means in which to do this in a way that the producer can remain profitable and adjust their overhead immediately to the production profile that exists that day. A flexibility that is necessary in the new shale gas reserves era and one that can ensure that this prolific and robust era can be properly managed.

The Preliminary Specification and user community provides the oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don't forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here. 

S + B, Big Oil and the Natural Gas Bonanza

Booz & Co’s periodical Strategy + Business have published a paper that asks the question;

The oil majors hope to make major money in natural gas, but can they learn to operate two distinct types of businesses under one roof?

Noting that unconventional gas requires a different business model that may not be served by the conventional methods of the industry.

The unexpected revival of natural gas is quietly precipitating a fundamental shift in the oil and gas industry — a shift that few companies were prepared for but that may determine the industry’s overall future makeup. It pits the major oil companies against the independents, which have plied the unconventional reservoirs doggedly over the last seven to 10 years. And it raises questions about whether the oil giants can become big players in this new unconventional gas business. To do so, they will have to develop dual operating models under one roof — one, a traditional high-risk, corporate-led exploration model, and the other, a nimble, efficient, and decentralized operation. In other industries (notably airlines), such two-headed strategies have generally failed.

Change is certainly in the air. Oil and gas prices are probably one of the best measures of the level of change in the oil and gas industry. It is pleasant to see Strategy + Business’ analysis providing confirmation to many of the things that we have stated here. This critique is to ensure the innovative producers remain successful.

In order to compete in unconventional assets, oil majors will have to embrace a dual operating model — in essence, pairing traditional operations with separate and more agile business units modeled after the independent gas firms, with flatter organizations, simpler governance structures, and an emphasis on efficiency and innovation. These attributes are necessary to reduce operating costs, as well as to allow the firms to quickly adapt new well designs, source local contractors and materials, and secure labor as needed.

What concerns me is the nature of the oil and gas industry towards new ideas. There is a culture of how management will not support new ideas, which includes this software development project. I have attributed this to the 1980’s and 1990’s survival strategies that were a necessity in oil and gas. Times have changed and its time for the management to realize they have to act. S + B note.

Above all, management will need to ensure that existing processes and structures do not discount these fresh ideas because of a “not invented here” bias. If a joint venture is part of this approach, the company will need to develop a plan that allows it to learn from the arrangement, by creating formal and informal governance mechanisms to promote the transfer and dissemination of knowledge.

I am under no illusions at the scope of change that we are introducing in this project. Using the Joint Operating Committee as the key organizational construct of the innovative producer will be necessary at some point in the very near future. An idea that resonates with those in the business as something we should have been doing all along. By delaying this project, one in which we have many years of work ahead of us, I believe is dangerous.

If designed and managed appropriately, either strategy could be successful, but history suggests that most of the oil giants will struggle to make dual operating models coexist. Though it may not seem obvious today, many of these companies are likely to find that the technical hurdles of unconventional reserves are relatively minor. Far tougher — and ultimately out of reach for some — will be the challenge of changing behavior and culture. 

For the industry to successfully provide for the consumers energy demands, it’s necessary to build the systems that identify and support the Joint Operating Committee. Building the Preliminary Specification is the focus of People, Ideas & Objects. Producers are encouraged to contact me in order to support our Revenue Model and begin their participation in these communities. Those individuals that are interested in joining People, Ideas & Objects can join me here and begin building the software necessary for the successful and innovative oil and gas industry.

Technorati Tags: People's Change Exploration Energy Innovation Management Organization Strategy

Exploration facts.

There's news from Reuters and the Calgary Herald that Canadian oil and gas companies costs of finding and producing oil are expected to fall this year. What has to be record prices is the announcement that the cost of replacing one barrel of oil rose to $22.72. It does not mention whether this was attributable to the higher level of engineering and earth science per barrel of oil, or, the lower volume of discoveries of reserves from exploration and production activities.

Irrespective of the specific reason why the price is rising, the same costs in 1999 were only $4.38. (All prices are reflected in Canadian dollars.) What the two articles subtly suggest is the costs associated with drilling and field work were up substantially. I have mentioned many times that the oil and gas company manager operates more as a Seal trainer then someone interested in developing the business they are in. They are only more interested in making themselves look more important by doling out the fish food to the service companies based on a "what have you done for me lately" basis. Between holding their captive audience over lunch to hear how wonderful they are, and talking to the press about how greedy the service industries have become, these oil and gas company managers pretend to have a full slate of work. Nothing could be further from the truth and I would suggest, again, that these people be shown the street as soon as possible. 

I have addressed these issues in the Draft Specification. The ability to develop the service industry is a critical part of an innovative oil and gas industry. The constant boom and bust cycles, and the "this quarter closing" ritual have made it difficult for service companies to develop any long term vision. Make hay while the sunshine's and hunker down when the storms role in are the only two operational strategies. To move forward from an engineering and earth science point of view. The oil and gas companies must approach the service industries with an eye to developing usable and innovative technologies together. The companies receive 100% of the revenues associated with producing oil and gas. When it comes to paying the royalties for those that are entitled to them, or the service companies that help in the exploration and development, the oil and gas company manager treats them as if they are a leach on their otherwise unearned fortune. The Resource Marketplace Module and Research & Capabilities Module address these issues and offer a solution of how the oil and gas and service industries can achieve greater throughput, innovation and capabilities. 

To speak to the elements in the main part of the Reuters and Herald articles. I suggested in the Preliminary Research Report that the engineering and earth science costs per unit of production were going to escalate as a result of the lapsing of the cheap energy era. This difficulty is showing itself in the five fold increase in costs over one decade. If anyone believes this trend will continue, that would bring a $110 / barrel of oil cost within the next decade. I happen to believe the number will be substantially more then five fold, although I have given up my gambling and fortune telling careers.

The power hungry primates that serve as managers at the Canadian oil and gas companies will have much larger budgets to play with. People, Ideas & Objects research shows that oil and gas companies are organizationally constrained. For them to increase their throughput requires more resources. Consistent throughout the Draft Specification is an understanding that re-organization is the only proven method of increasing productivity. Adam Smiths pin shop proved this in the 1700's and we have benefited from specialization and the division of labor since. The need is evident to me. Please join me here.

Technorati Tags: People's Accountability Engineering Exploration Geology Innovation Leadership Management

15 TCF of Natural Gas

That was the volume of gas that Shell bought from Duvernay Oil Corp. The purpose of this entry is to provide a little more about the understanding of reserves.

Way back when the geological survey determined that Canada would potentially produce 150 TCF of natural gas. Updates to the survey show that Canada has produced a little over two thirds of what they once had.

Now Duvernay comes along and discovers 15TCF of gas? The question is, is this 10% of the 150 TCF or is it an addition to total 165 TCF. The answer is "I don't care". Reserves have taken on a distorted meaning in the Peak Oil crowd. They are meaningless in determining what the future potential of an entrepreneur can do if they truly understand the business. While the Peak Oil crowd and Cambridge Energy Research Associates were reviewing reserves, Duvernay got down to the business at hand. Getting down to the business at hand is available to everyone, everyone who is not so glazed over by the value of their stock options.

Technorati Tags: People's Exploration Innovation Research

NOC's Don't Explore.

First of all, a quick comment, price volatility is not a welcome trend. The price of oil in the world is moving up and down in a rather violent manner the last few weeks. This is a precursor to some major upswing in the price, so hang on this might get really rough.

I find it amusing that the companies are not even listed in the call to action by the former Secretaries of Defense, State, Commerce and Energy. The companies have cruised to the point where even the politicians are not expecting anything from them!

Back to the key topic of this post. One of the key complaints of the oil and gas companies is that they are being kicked out of the countries that manage their energy assets through "National Oil Companies" (NOC's). Countries such as Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. To expect an exploration mindset from either Saudi Arabia or Venezuela is wrong headed. They're only interested in the efficient and effective management of their countries energy resources. Because of this the oil and gas companies should not have any competition from NOC's. (Wasn't that in the movie "Apocaplypse Now" "NOC's don't explore"). Sitting in the corner and crying is not a proper posture for these oil and gas companies. Or do pigs squeal in the corner.

If as I had suggested in my review of the book "Profit from the Peak", these companies don't know how to explore, can't explore and are not able to organize themselves to explore. I say sure they have exploration departments; but the people there are only picking up their companies leadership position in having their retirement homes bathrooms wallpapered with stock certificates. If they are doing nothing but squealing and lining their pockets why don't we send them to the slaughter house?

Is an exploration mindset necessary? Would it provide the discovery of new oil and gas fields? You be the Judge. In Calgary, Duvernay was purchased this week by Shell for $5.9 billion. Never heard of Duvernay Oil Corp? I can assure you not many have. They started in 2001 from nothing and this is their story:

Duvernay Oil Corp. is an aggressive Alberta based oil and gas company with an aggressive activity plan for future growth. The company is engaged in exploration and development of natural gas and crude oil emphasis on the deeper, western portion of the western Canadian sedimentary basin in Alberta and Northeastern British Columbia.

Reading their annual report for 2007 will reflect that exploration is their core focus. If you download the report, look at the awesome pictures on page 2. Aggressive innovation is Duvernay's middle name. And the map on page 13. That little map contains the work of probably a few genius level geologists life-time of work.

Therefore a start-up focused on Alberta and BC can earn $1 billion per year? That's what exploration is about. I'm tired of the noise and smell of the oil and gas companies that I have highlighted as pigs. Lets get rid of them. Join me here.

Technorati Tags: People's Management Failure Exploration