Showing posts with label Interests. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Interests. Show all posts

Friday, November 21, 2008

The New Economics of Computing.

Professor Nicholas Carr is a Professor in the business faculty at Harvard. He is probably most famous for his controversial article "IT Doesn't Matter" and the follow on "Does IT Matter, an HBR Debate". June 2003. Since these publications he has written a few books on the topic of IT and writes a blog about the way he sees technology and technology trends influencing business.

He has been talking about the implications of "Cloud Computing" and what the paradigm change means to business, both technical and other businesses. In his recent post he makes some comments about the significance, and an example of how cloud computing does provide real value. (Recall the People, Ideas & Objects application will be accessed through the "Cloud Computing" method.)

My favorite example, which is about a year old now, is both simple and revealing. In late 2007, the New York Times faced a challenge. It wanted to make available over the web its entire archive of articles, 11 million in all, dating back to 1851. It had already scanned all the articles, producing a huge, four-terabyte pile of images in TIFF format. But because TIFFs are poorly suited to online distribution, and because a single article often comprised many TIFFs, the Times needed to translate that four-terabyte pile of TIFFs into more web-friendly PDF files. That's not a particularly complicated computing chore, but it's a large computing chore, requiring a whole lot of computer processing time.


Fortunately, a software programmer at the Times, Derek Gottfrid, had been playing around with Amazon Web Services for a number of months, and he realized that Amazon's new computing utility, Elastic Compute Cloud (EC2), might offer a solution. Working alone, he uploaded the four terabytes of TIFF data into Amazon's Simple Storage System (S3) utility, and he hacked together some code for EC2 that would, as he later described in a blog post, "pull all the parts that make up an article out of S3, generate a PDF from them and store the PDF back in S3." He then rented 100 virtual computers through EC2 and ran the data through them. In less than 24 hours, he had his 11,000 PDFs, all stored neatly in S3 and ready to be served up to visitors to the Times site.


The total cost for the computing job? Gottfrid told me that the entire EC2 bill came to $240. (That's 10 cents per computer-hour times 100 computers times 24 hours; there were no bandwidth charges since all the data transfers took place within Amazon's system - from S3 to EC2 and back.)
My experience with "Cloud Computing" has involved renting processors on Sun Microsystems network.com and Amazon's Web Service offerings. You should set up an account on one of these services to understand the full scope of the power that is offered to the user. If you have a processing problem that can take 100 hours of processing on your computer, hoisting it up on one of these services will not only allow you to process the problem far more cost effectively as Professor Carr points out. But you would also recieve the results for this 100 hour job within a matter of minutes. To me this was the intoxicating aspect of cloud computing.

Go ahead and try one of these web services. If you need help figuring out what type of problem to solve, use this Princeton University book. (Download the first chapter, its free.)

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Tuesday, September 11, 2007

A researchers delight.

Google recently upgraded their "Google Books" search and information system. In the past I was able to use an application called "Books" to manage the library of books that I have. How many times I had wished for the ability to search just my books, and only my books. This was a dream that I believed would never be realized, then came Google. Their new product offering does just that, it lets you search the books you loaded into their new "Library" feature of Google Books. Giving you an index of just your books is something that should be in every users tool box.

An added feature of Google Books should be the capability to purchase Books, and maybe just electronic access for a short period of time. Or maybe an overall subscription that provides access to all books. Nonetheless a researchers delight to be sure.

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Thursday, September 06, 2007

And so it begins.

Today Total Petroleum announced a decline of 20% of their projected production to 2010. Not their overall production is in decline; only there projected increases are revised downwards from 5% to 4%. This is more telling about the politics in big companies. Rarely would we have seen such a statement that production would be lower then previously reported. If its lower then just do more drilling, or whatever, to increase production to what was reported earlier. For Total to issue such a statement there must be a lack of faith in the company’s ability to increase production that extra 1%.

Now that the IEA and the National Petroleum Council have released their reports it's "OK" for the truth to be told. Total may be the first that I am aware of, but I am certain that there will be many more, and the volume and the pitch will be heard everywhere. Just as in the 1980's when the managers jumped over each other to prove they could cut their budget further then the last guy, the companies will quietly line up and announce one after another the increase in their associated production decreases.

Speaking of cover stories, OPEC can now pipe in and say that they will be experiencing some production declines. With the news of the major producers decline in production becoming yesterday's news, and a financial crisis in the home mortgage market, no one will actually hear OPEC announce the declines. (Possibly as soon as September 11.) And it will be too tempting for them not to make these announcements. After all reporting to their people that production is scaled back and revenues are way up will be easy to sell. Hugo Chaves may actually become that mythic hero he sees himself as.

I have repeated here many times that the constraints on companies are the reason for the associated decline in production. It’s a new time and a new place. We have to do something to affect the performance of these companies. Our choices are the status quo, build the software I speak of here, or if we do not define and support the Joint Operating Committee, as is suggested in this new software development, then we will be relegated to reorganizing to manual systems.

Clearly the status quo is not working. Join me in making this re-organization real. When you have the organizations actively jumping over each other to state the bad news, you know that their options are limited.

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Thursday, March 01, 2007

Ray Kurzweil, always a worthwhile speaker.

Ray Kurzweil is back on MIT Video. I wrote about Mr. Kurzweil on his last video performance at MIT. A very entertaining video and I highly recommend everyone go and view it.

Mr Kurzweil is the author of the Best Selling book "The Singularity is Near" as well as many others. Mr. Kurzweil debates with Professor David Gelernter of Yale the when, if, what and how of computer processing, and will it attain the level of human intelligence. A debate that provides new information regarding the capabilities and the definition of artificial intelligence.

Mr. Kurzweil suggest that the benchmark processing power of machines will emulate the human mind around 2029. He is careful not to suggest that this means a machine takes on a level of consciousness, but has attained the same level of performance of the human mind. If I understood him correctly, machines are providing an enhancement to human intelligence today, and that is what he means when he talks about artificial intelligence, an augmentation of capabilities for the human mind, with 2029 machines being produced with human like levels of performance.

Kurzweil's position is a reasonable point of view about when and how machines will achieve human like intelligence. Professor Gelernter wants the Turing test to be the ultimate test of human like performance and seems to insist on machines attaining levels of human consciousness. Something that he insists, rightly, will probably never happen.

The reference to 2029 by Kurzweil depends on the logarithmic and exponential growth in information, knowledge and processing power. He noted that knowledge was now doubling each year, with acceleration from the point where we are at now, what will be required in 2029 seems impossible, however, the acceleration is driven exponentially and logarithmically, whereas people think of the future only from the point of view of their historical experience, or as Kurzweil puts it linearly.

To me the debate is somewhat of limited value, Professor Gelernter appears not to be debating something he believes and hence his arguments fall somewhat flat.

The second video of this MIT series is very interesting particularly from the historical point of view. Professor Jack Copeland of the University of Canterbury, New Zealand. His discussion of the Turing Test and how Alan Turing solved the German Enigma machine in World War II. He continues on documenting interesting points of Turing's life and the impact that his Turing has had on the computer industry. A very worthwhile set of videos that provide very interesting views of the past and future of the computing industry.

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Wednesday, December 13, 2006

Some books I like.

104 Titles of some of the best books that I found.

The Strategy of Conflict
Thomas C. Schelling

Classical and nonclassical logics : an introduction to the mathematics of propositions
Schechter, Eric, 1950-

Winning at collaboration commerce : the next competitive advantage
Collins, Heidi.; Gordon, Cindy.; Terra, Jose Claudio Cyrineu.
August 23, 2005

Computational Economics
David A. Kendrick, P. Ruben Mercado, Hans M. Amman
December 15, 2005

The Constitution of Society: Outline of the Theory of Structuration
Anthony Giddens
January 11, 1986

Execution: The Discipline of Getting Things Done
Larry Bossidy, Ram Charan, Charles Burck
June 15, 2002

Extreme Competition: Innovation And the Great 21st Century Business Reformation
Peter Fingar
January 31, 2006

The fast forward MBA in project management
Verzuh, Eric.

Freakonomics : a rogue economist explores the hidden side of everything
Levitt, Steven D.; Dubner, Stephen J.

The Future of Work: How the New Order of Business Will Shape Your Organization, Your Management Style and Your Life
Thomas W. Malone
April 2, 2004

Genome
Matt Ridley
October 3, 2000

Happy Lives and the Highest Good : An Essay on Aristotle's "Nicomachean Ethics"
Gabriel Richardson Lear
January 5, 2004

Human accomplishment : the pursuit of excellence in the arts and sciences, 800 BC to 1950
Murray, Charles A.

Ideas Have Consequences
Richard M. Weaver
September 15, 1984

Income Distribution in Macroeconomic Models
Giuseppe Bertola, Reto Foellmi, Josef Zweimuller
December 1, 2005

Innovation, Organization and Economic Dynamics: Selected Essays
Giovanni Dosi
September 23, 2001

It's About Time : Understanding Einstein's Relativity
N. David Mermin
November 1, 2005

The Java programming language
Arnold, Ken, 1958-; Gosling, James.; Holmes, David (David Colin)

Java: An Eventful Approach
Kim Bruce, Andrea Danyluk, Thomas Murtagh
July 29, 2005

Leading with questions : how leaders find the right solutions by knowing what to ask
Marquardt, Michael J.

Learning the bash Shell
Newham, Cameron.; Rosenblatt, Bill.

Lecture Notes in Microeconomic Theory : The Economic Agent
Ariel Rubinstein
December 16, 2005

Max Plus at work : modeling and analysis of synchronized systems : a course on Max-Plus algebra and its applications
Heidergott, Bernd.; Olsder, Geert Jan.; Woude, J. W. van der.

On Adam Smith's Wealth of nations : a philosophical companion
Fleischacker, Samuel.

The only sustainable edge : why business strategy depends on productive friction and dynamic specialization
Hagel, John.; Brown, John Seely.

Philosophy as a Humanistic Discipline
Bernard Williams, A. W. Moore
January 2, 2006

Politics and Vision : Continuity and Innovation in Western Political Thought
Sheldon S. Wolin
May 3, 2004

The Politics of Good Intentions : History, Fear and Hypocrisy in the New World Order
David Runciman
May 5, 2006

Producing security : multinational corporations, globalization, and the changing calculus of conflict
Brooks, Stephen G., 1971-

Radical evolution : the promise and peril of enhancing our minds, our bodies--and what it means to be human
Garreau, Joel.

The Singularity Is Near : When Humans Transcend Biology
Ray Kurzweil
September 22, 2005

The State of Democratic Theory
Ian Shapiro
August 18, 2003

The Strategy of Conflict
Thomas C. Schelling
June 26, 2003

The Success of Open Source
Steve Weber

Swarm creativity : competitive advantage through collaborative innovation networks
Gloor, Peter A. (Peter Andreas), 1961-

The Theory of Corporate Finance
Jean Tirole
December 15, 2005

Understanding institutional diversity
Ostrom, Elinor.

The West's last chance : will we win the clash of civilizations?
Blankley, Tony.

Wicked cool Java : code bits, open-source libraries, and project ideas
Eubanks, Brian D.

Winning at collaboration commerce : the next competitive advantage
Collins, Heidi.; Gordon, Cindy.; Terra, Jos©♭ Cl©Łudio Cyrineu.

Winning the Knowledge Transfer Race
Michael J. English, William H. Baker
October 25, 2005

The World Is Flat: A Brief History of the Twenty-first Century
Thomas L. Friedman
April 5, 2005

Infrastructure: A Field Guide to the Industrial Landscape
Brian Hayes
September 26, 2005

It's Not What You Say...It's What You Do: How Following Through at Every Level Can Make or Break Your Company
Laurence Houghton, Laurence Haughton
December 28, 2004

Knowledge Accumulation and Industry Evolution : The Case of Pharma-Biotech
Mariana Mazzucato, Giovanni Dosi
March 9, 2006

The Nature and Dynamics of Organizational Capabilities
Giovanni Dosi, Richard R. Nelson, Sidney G. Winter
January 15, 2001

Technology, Organization, and Competitiveness : Perspectives on Industrial and Corporate Change
Giovanni Dosi, David J. Teece, Josef Chytry
May 21, 1998

Technology and Enterprise in Historical Perspective
Giovanni Dosi, Renato Giannetti, Pier Angelo Toninelli
August 1, 1992

The Economics of Technical Change and International Trade
Giovanni Dosi, Keith Pavitt, Luc Soete
March 23, 1991

Technical Change and Economic Theory (Ifias Research Series, Number 6)
Giovanni Dosi
October 23, 1990

Technical Change and Industrial Transformation
Giovanni Dosi
August 23, 1984

Technical change and survival: Europe's semiconductor industry (Industrial adjustment and policy)
Giovanni Dosi
February 23, 1981

Sisomo: The Future on Screen
Kevin Roberts
November 15, 2005

An Army of Davids : How Markets and Technology Empower Ordinary People to Beat Big Media, Big Government, and Other Goliaths
Glenn Reynolds
March 7, 2006

The Prepared Mind of a Leader : Eight Skills Leaders Use to Innovate, Make Decisions, and Solve Problems
Bill Welter, Jean Egmon
October 24, 2005

License to Harass : Law, Hierarchy, and Offensive Public Speech (The Cultural Lives of Law)
Laura Beth Nielsen
August 30, 2004

Plato's Fable : On the Mortal Condition in Shadowy Times (New Forum Books)
Joshua Mitchell
March 3, 2006

China the Balance Sheet: What the World Needs to Know about the Emerging Superpower
Institute for International Economics, Center for Strategic & International Stu
April 10, 2006

A Machine to Make a Future : Biotech Chronicles
Paul Rabinow, Talia Dan-Cohen
April 7, 2006

Dynamic Models in Biology
Stephen P. Ellner, John Guckenheimer
March 31, 2006

Information Science
David G. Luenberger
February 15, 2006

Information Revolution : Using the Information Evolution Model to Grow Your Business
Jim Davis, Gloria E. Miller, Allan Russell
January 9, 2006

Managing in the Next Society
Peter F. Drucker
July 24, 2002

The Long Tail : Why the Future of Business Is Selling Less of More
Chris Anderson
July 11, 2006

A New Kind of Science
Stephen Wolfram
May 14, 2002

The Second Cycle: Winning the War Against Bureaucracy
Lars Kolind
April 24, 2006

Competing on the Edge : Strategy as Structured Chaos
Shona L. Brown, Kathleen M. Eisenhardt
April 15, 1998

The Innovation Killer: How What We Know Limits What We Can Imagine... And What Smart Companies Are Doing About It
Cynthia Barton Rabe
June 30, 2006

A Whole New Mind: Moving from the Information Age to the Conceptual Age
Daniel H. Pink
March 24, 2005

Schumpeter on the Economics of Innovation And the Development of Capitalism
Arnold Heertje, Jan Middendorp
March 24, 2006

Infrastructure: A Field Guide to the Industrial Landscape
Brian Hayes
September 18, 2006

Choice and Consequence
Thomas C. Schelling
April 4, 2006

Micromotives and Macrobehavior (Fels Lectures on Public Policy Analysis)
Thomas C. Schelling
October 23, 1978

Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages
Carlota Perez
April 23, 2003

Innovation, Organization and Economic Dynamics: Selected Essays
Giovanni Dosi
September 23, 2001

Evolutionary Economics and Creative Destruction (Graz Schumpeter Lectures, 1)
J. Metcalfe
January 28, 1998

Knowledge, Institutions and Evolution in Economics (The Graz Schumpeter Lectures)
Brian Loasby
September 23, 2002

Schumpeter and the Endogeneity of Technology : Some American Perspectives
N. Rosenberg
June 23, 2000

Joseph Alois Schumpeter
Wolfgang F. Stolper
August 8, 1994

Democracy, Education, and Equality: Graz-Schumpeter Lectures (Econometric Society Monographs)
John E. Roemer
January 9, 2006

Invisible Engines: How Software Platforms Drive Innovation and Transform Industries
David S. Evans, Andrei Hagiu, Richard Schmalensee
October 1, 2006

Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy
Matthew R. Simmons
June 10, 2005

iWoz: From Computer Geek to Cult Icon: How I Invented the Personal Computer, Co-Founded Apple, and Had Fun Doing It
Steve Wozniak, Gina Smith
September 25, 2006

Mavericks at Work: Why the Most Original Minds in Business Win
William C. Taylor, Polly G. LaBarre
October 2, 2006

America Alone: The End of the World as We Know It
Mark Steyn
September 16, 2006

Power, Speed, and Form: Engineers and the Making of the Twentieth Century
David P. Billington, David P. Billington Jr.
October 2, 2006

Painting outside the Lines: Patterns of Creativity in Modern Art
David W. Galenson
January 18, 2002

Old Masters and Young Geniuses: The Two Life Cycles of Artistic Creativity
David W. Galenson
December 27, 2005

Capitalism and Freedom: Fortieth Anniversary Edition
Milton Friedman
November 15, 2002

The Road to Serfdom Fiftieth Anniversary Edition
F. A. Hayek, Milton Friedman
October 15, 1994

The Constitution of Liberty
F. A. Hayek
October 15, 1978

Law, Legislation and Liberty, Volume 1: Rules and Order
F. A. Hayek
February 15, 1978

Law, Legislation and Liberty, Volume 2: The Mirage of Social Justice
F. A. Hayek
October 15, 1978

Law, Legislation and Liberty, Volume 3: The Political Order of a Free People
F. A. Hayek
March 15, 1981

Individualism and Economic Order
F. A. Hayek
June 1, 1996

Capitalism and Freedom: Fortieth Anniversary Edition
Milton Friedman
November 15, 2002

Free to Choose: A Personal Statement
Milton Friedman, Rose Friedman
November 18, 1990

A New Kind of Science
Stephen Wolfram
May 14, 2002

The Emotion Machine: Commonsense Thinking, Artificial Intelligence, and the Future of the Human Mind
Marvin Minsky
November 7, 2006

Organizations,
James G. March
June 5, 1958

Lectures on Economic Growth
Robert E., Jr. Lucas
February 15, 2002

The Attention Economy : Understanding the New Currency of Business
Thomas H. Davenport, John C. Beck
June 6, 2001

Change or Die: How to Transform Your Organization from the Inside Out
M. David Dealy, Andrew R. Thomas
November 30, 2005

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